| 摘要: |
| 科技馆常设展览的造价控制是优化公共资源配置、推动科普事业可持续发展的关键之一。针对当前行业缺乏科学造价方法导致的决策失范与成本失控问题,本研究基于全国46个科技馆常设展览的实证数据,通过Pearson相关分析量化地域差异、展品密度、展品创新率等七大核心影响因素与常设展览总造价的关系,构建常设展览造价的非线性加权模型。模型创新性引入分段函数、指数衰减模型及动态乘积结构,有效解决多重共线性、数据断层及非线性关系等难题。本研究成果为科技馆建设提供了数据驱动的成本管控工具,推动行业从经验决策向智能决策的范式转型。 |
| 关键词: 科技馆 常设展览造价 非线性加权模型 Pearson相关分析 A Nonlinear Weighted Total Cost Model for Permanent Exhibitions in Science and Technology Museums Zhang Gen Zhu Daohong Luo Jifeng Bai Jinsong |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:中国科学技术馆科研项目“科技馆常设展览全过程造价方法研究”,编号:ZGKJGWTXM-202409。 ② 张亘:合肥市科技馆展品研发部工程师；研究方向:科技馆展览展品及教育活动研发；通讯地址:合肥市彩虹路899号合肥市科技馆蜀西湖馆区；邮编:230031；Email:zeusgodseed@163.com； 朱道宏:合肥市科技馆馆长；研究方向:科学传播和科技场馆管理；Email:464288859@qq.com； 罗季峰:合肥市科技馆副馆长、副研究员；研究方向:科技馆展览展品及教育活动研发；Email:luojf7321@126.com； 柏劲松:本文 |
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| A Nonlinear Weighted Total Cost Model for Permanent Exhibitions in Science and Technology Museums |
| Zhang Gen,Zhu Daohong,Luo Jifeng,Bai Jinsong |
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| Abstract: |
| Cost control of permanent exhibitions in Science and Technology Museums (S&TMs) is crucial to optimizing public resource allocation and promoting the sustainable development of science popularization. To address the challenges of non-standardized decision-making and cost overruns due to the lack of scientific costing methods, this paper developed a nonlinearly weighted model for estimating the total cost of permanent exhibitions. Based on empirical data from 46 S&TMs across China, it employed Pearson correlation analysis to quantify the relationships between the total cost and seven core influencing factors, including regional disparities, exhibit density, and innovation component rate. The model innovatively integrated piecewise functions, an exponential decay model, and a dynamic multiplicative structure, effectively addressing issues such as multicollinearity, data gaps, and nonlinear relationships. This paper provides a data-driven tool for cost control in the construction of S&TMs, facilitating a paradigm shift in the industry from experience-based to intelligent decision-making. |
| Key words: science and technology museum, permanent exhibition cost, nonlinear weighting model, Pearson correlation analysis |
